2026 World Championship in Aachen: A Look at the Statistics—What Are the Odds of a World Champion Coming from Germany?

From a German perspective, the situation looks extremely promising, writes EquiRatings: Daniel Deußer (1), Marcus Ehning (4), and Sophie Hinners (5) are less than one jumping fault away from victory. Should any of them win today, he or she would become only the fifth rider in history to win both team and individual gold.

Four Double World Champions with Team and Individual Gold in World Championship History

Four riders have won double gold at World Championships in show jumping

to date

. ⁠In 1990, France’s Eric Navet won with Quito de Baussy in Stockholm, while in The Hague, Franke Sloothaak and the Oldenburg mare Weihaiwej claimed the individual world championship. Previously, the Dutch-born rider had won team gold alongside Sören von Rönne and Taggi, Ludger Beerbaum with Ratina Z, and Dirk Hafemeister with P.S. Priamos.

In Caen in 2014, the Dutch rider Jeroen Dubbeldam won with SFN Zenith, and Sweden dominated the show jumping competition in Herning in 2022, led by world champion Henrik von Eckermann and King Edward.

Franke Sloothaak is the only German to have achieved the double so far. That was 32 years ago.

Girl Power? Sophie Hinners Could Become the Third Women’s World Champion

So far, two women have won the World Championship in individual show jumping. In Aachen, it was the Canadian Gail Greenough who triumphed in 1986 with the Hanoverian Mr. T. Eight years ago, when the World Championship was decided without a change of horses for the first time, Simone Blum and DSP Alice claimed victory in Tryon.

… and individual medals for women?

A victory by Sophie Hinners would make her the third world champion in the history of the competition and the second German woman to achieve this. A silver medal—Beezie Madden with Authentic (USA) in Aachen in 2006, as well as two bronze medals—Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum on Shutterfly (GER) in Aachen in 2006, and Beezie Madden on Cortez in Caen in 2014—are the only medals women have received on the podium so far.

With a victory in the individual competition, Sophie Hinners could make history. She would then become the first woman to win both the team and individual titles at the same World Championships. In his career, Iron Dames Singclair has cleared 1.60 meters six times in Aachen. Every time without a knockdown.

A look at the horses: Medal winner Dynamix de Belheme

Dynamix de Belheme and Steve Guerdat are in the lead. This is the mare’s third championship: The pair won their debut at the 2023 European Championships in Milan, and at the 2024 Olympic Games, they were only beaten by Christian Kukuk and Checker in the gold-medal jump-off—taking silver.

Odds according to EquiRatings: Guerdat’s chance of winning: 28 percent

The EquiRatings model’s statistical tool has identified Guerdat as the favorite: a 28 percent chance of winning and a 50 percent overall chance of winning a medal. The Swiss rider has experience competing in World Championship finals: In 2018, the 2012 London Olympic champion won the bronze medal in the individual competition in Tryon with Bianca.

The Starting Point

The top five pairs are separated by less than one penalty point: the entire top ten are separated by just 3.94 penalty points. You don’t have to be a math genius to see that one drop-off completely shuffles the rankings.

The Importance of Clear Rounds

At the past five World Championships, the eventual world champion did not have a single jumping fault in the final. However, two of these world champions each incurred one time penalty.

How likely are misses?

In the last eight World Championships, the average error rate in the first round of the finals was just 22 percent. In the B final, more than one-third of the competitors (36%) had at least one drop. And one final statistic: On average, only three pairs manage a “double zero” on the day of the final.